Can Anyone Stop Yukub?

The Conservative leadership election has been tumultuous. While Deputy Leader model-willem was seen as an early favourite for winning the election, the odds have swung in favour of Yukub, current Attorney General for England and Wales and veteran party member.

No one appears to have ever doubted his influence and connections within the Conservative Party – he appears a near universally liked figure within the party, by all accounts, and he commands the respect of a great deal of figures throughout the Conservatives. Rather, no one seemed to realise initially that he wanted the job. He's avoided the limelight for some time now, content to occupy his place on the frontbench relatively quietly. His attitude, of course, has changed, but it all appears rather sudden.

Since he announced his candidacy, support from former Conservative leaders has flooded in. Brookheimer, former leader of the Conservatives, announced his endorsement of Yukub in the Independent earlier today. Former leaders and Prime Ministers eelsemaj99, DrCaesarMD, InfernoPlato, and Leafy_Emerald have similarly thrown their weight behind Yukub.

That's not to say that Mr willem hasn't gotten endorsements. Former Classical Liberal leader (and self-described Eternal President) Duncs11 threw his weight behind Willem. Conservative tommy2boys, while not an ex-Classical Liberal, appears to have some degree of influence with the former Classical Liberals in the party. He, too, endorsed model-willem. The question, of course, is whether it will be enough.

This Conservative leadership election is notable for being one of the very few conducted publicly. The first indications the public received of model-mili's predecessors Leafy_Emerald or eelsemaj99 were resigning was when their successors were announced. This election, however, has given the public a rare insight into the internal divisions within the party. While these divisions are weaker than Labour's established system of factions (before they were banned), it is notable to see former Classical Liberals fall in line to support their leader for the top job.

Which brings us to the question: is the support of his former party going to be enough to seal victory for model-willem? Assuming the only support he receives is from former Classical Liberals, the answer is of course no. His only path to victory now is to convince rank-and-file Conservatives that their former leaders are somehow mistaken or have misjudged this decision. While he surely does not want to burn his bridges with the Conservative establishment, he will also need to distance himself from the influence of the Bullingdon Club and draw support from those who will not be swayed by the influential voices of leaders past.

This will be no small feat. Mr willem's team will surely be scrambling, trying to put together some strategy for victory in the election. But unless something changes dramatically, Mr willem will need a miracle to deny Yukub the leadership.

Lily Hail is the editor-in-chief of the Independent.