As Government collapses, Westminster asks: what now?

As the political world observes a sort of stunned silence as the Government is toppled by a successful no-confidence motion tabled by the Libertarian Party with backing from Labour and the Democratic Reformists, the question that everyone is asking is "what comes next?"

While the only people who truly know the answer are leaders of major parties – ARichTeaBiscuit, Friedmanite19, and model-mili – others are more than willing to comment on the Government's collapse. The Independent talked to multiple figures to ask about their thoughts.

The Outsider

14derry, principal contact for the People's Movement

The People's Movement are not a conventional party and 14derry is not a conventional Member of Parliament. The People's Movement – like their spiritual predecessors, the Greens – do not have a leader, opting instead to exercise collective leadership. Ms Derry is the designated contact for the People's Movement, and she agreed to share her thoughts on recent events.

She did not mince words when asked about her thoughts on the Government's collapse. A woman known for her disdain of the Conservative Party, she was blunt about her feelings about the success of the no-confidence vote.

LILY HAIL: First of all, I'd just like to know your general thoughts on the Government's collapse.
14DERRY: Well, what more can I say other than that I’m glad that the dastardly duo of the Lib Dems and Tories are gone for the moment?

There have been mixed signals coming from members of the People's Movement as to whether or not they would consider entering a governing coalition. They are a party naturally suited for opposition, where their staunch refusal to compromise on policy they hold dear is a tenable position. However, entering a governing coalition would require them to display uncharacteristic ideological compromise with the Labour Party, let alone the Liberal Democrats or the Democratic Reformists. Ms Derry did not appear thrilled by the prospect of entering government, but did not rule it out either.

LILY HAIL: Your party backed the VoNC, but there’s been conflicting messages coming from TPM as to whether or not they’d join a government coalition. Can you confirm whether or not your party would enter government?
14DERRY: I don’t think that the wider party membership would want to enter government unless under extreme circumstances.
LILY HAIL: What would those extreme circumstances be?
14DERRY: In the case of a government of all the talents needing to be formed, for example, or another circumstance such as preventing Tory rule.

Given that Ms Derry entertained the possibility of entering a coalition to deny the Conservatives a minority government, the Independent asked about any conversations she had with Labour leader ARichTeaBiscuit. Ms Derry confirmed these talks were occuring but declined to share specifics.

LILY HAIL: Have you had any conversations with ARichTeaBiscuit regarding government formation or confidence and supply?
14DERRY: Talks are ongoing with ARichTeaBiscuit, yes.

If the People's Movement were to enter government with Labour, they would have to work with the Liberal Democrats, the Democratic Reformists, or both, as excluding one of those parties from a Labour-TPM coalition would not give them enough seats to prevent a Conservative minority government. The Independent asked Ms Derry about the ideological differences between the People's Movement and those other parties, as a successful coalition would require significant compromise from all parties.

LILY HAIL: Your party is known for its strong ideological convictions. Do you think you'll be able to work with parties towards the centre, such as the Liberal Democrats and the Democratic Reformist Front?
14DERRY: Well, with regard to those two parties, while our economic positions may differ heavily, we do broadly share a similar space on the social axes, for example with regard to queer rights and democratic enhancement.
LILY HAIL: Yes, but respectfully, economics are an incredibly important part of any government or confidence and supply agreement. Would your party be able to agree to vote for a hypothetical LibLabDRF budget?
14DERRY: That all depends on the contents of such a budget, really.

Finally, Ms Derry quickly dismissed the possibility of a snap general election when asked about whether her party would be prepared for such an event. Instead, she touted bills that her party intends to put before Parliament in the coming weeks.

LILY HAIL: Next, I'd like to ask you about a potential snap election. If one were to occur, would your party be ready?
14DERRY: A snap election won’t happen.
LILY HAIL: Fair enough. Is there anything else you'd like to share?
14DERRY: Nothing pertaining to government formation.
LILY HAIL: Anything in general?
14DERRY: Well, we’ll be presenting a couple of bills in Parliament over the next couple of weeks, so stay tuned for that.

The most significant revelation of the conversation seems to be that the People's Movement are actively considering entering a governing coalition with the Labour Party. Such an event, if it comes to fruition, would be unprecedented, but the stability of the ensuing coalition remains an open question.

The Minister

HollaIfYouHearMe1, Scotland Secretary and Scottish Liberal Democrat leader

HollaIfYouHearMe1 is a relatively new face in British politics, but they've already made their mark. The leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Secretary of State for Scotland, they made their political debut in the Clegg coalition, and are understandably not thrilled to see it go.

LILY HAIL: First question: what are your general thoughts on the Government's collapse?
HOLLAIFYOUHEARME1: It's sad for me personally. I've enjoyed my time in this government, with people I value as good friends and well-regarded colleagues working alongside me to provide genuine change. I had a lot of plans in my office to help Scotland along within the union it has so often flirted with departing from, at a time where its faith in unionism has never been stronger, so its bittersweet for me to be stopped in my tracks before I had a chance to get going.
It's sad for the country too. We haven't had a government who has lasted an entire year for almost two terms. The economy doesn't need such volatility and the mood of the nation shouldn't be toyed so often. But such is the nature of democracy, you have to recognise parliament voted in no confidence in us and take it from there.

In comments that should be concerning to ARichTeaBiscuit, they did not appear enamoured by the possibility of a coalition with the Labour Party. Indeed, with one of the party's last major figures on its left wing, JellyCow, defecting to Labour, it's an open question as to whether or not the Liberal Democrats will be willing to enter a government with Labour. Far from being the liberators who threw off the Tory yoke off the Liberal Democrats, they may be the party that toppled their government with the expectation that the Liberal Democrats would submit to them as a coalition partner.

LILY HAIL: The Liberal Democrats have moved rightwards since their time in the Sunrise Coalition. Do you see a coalition with the Labour Party as a possibility?
HOLLAIFYOUHEARME1: If it did, I certainly won't be serving in it! In all seriousness, I think Labour have made a very grave mistake here. We've seen from the reports from other broadsheet newspapers, where the Leader of the Opposition openly courted some degree of Lib Dem favour, a detriment to their otherwise exemplar personal character and the erstwhile respect others have for them across parliamentary lines.
It's just disrespectful to the customs of government to put your own chances in the limelight ahead of the national interest, and frankly I think they've overplayed their hand in thinking Liberal Democrats who have had to vacate their office, say goodbye to civil servants whose jobs be uncertain, and thank the tea lady, are so crass or spineless to accept any sort of governing offer.
We've got a steady backbone and we intend to defend our record on delivering for this nation beyond this coalition. Labour don't appear to recognise that and see us as some foolhardy marauders, jumping from pillar to post for want of power. That isn't how the party I joined as a much younger man rolls.

Indeed, far from being entranced by the possibility of a broad-left coalition, they seemed resigned to a Conservative minority government.

LILY HAIL: What do you see as the most likely outcome of this VoNC once the dust settles?
HOLLAIFYOUHEARME1: I think everyone's hedged their bets on the whole progressive coalition thing, forgetting the very bad blood fostered in progressive ranks in recent months. You will not see the Democratic Reformists risk forming a spine on economics to push for constitutional change, nor The People's Movement risk discrediting their anti-parliamentarianism to become the feline face of the political establishment. The only outcome therefore is a Conservative minority, and while I know them to be capable governors, a lack of a majority or a clear future Prime Minister in sight leaves that as a much less stable option than previously, but ultimately more stable than any other.

In their parting words, they seemed assured of the Liberal Democrats' ability to recover from exiting the government in such an abrupt manner. If their polling is to stabilise in its wake and the party to make gains in the next election, thechattyshow will certainly hope that their predictions are correct.

We're downtrodden from tonight's collapse, but we'll get up, lick our wounds, and fight again for the liberal vision tomorrow, as envisaged by Jo Grimond 60 years ago, David Lloyd George 110 years ago, and William Gladstone 150 years ago. If we let ourselves get hung up on what could've beens and how ever nots, we'll languish. We have to be ready to perform and stand on our guard at all times, otherwise we'll get nowhere. This isn't a good night, but it can prove to be another catalyst for liberalism to have many more good nights in the future if we learn from this downfall and try even harder to work to our aims.

The Socialist

HK Norman, former Energy and Climate Change Secretary

HK Norman is no stranger to unstable governments. A veteran of the Sunrise Coalition, they know how it feels to sit in a cabinet room rocked by division. The question is whether or not the Labour Party are about to enter another one.

Norman seemed pleased with the Government's collapse, citing its 'incompetence'. Interestingly, however, they did not seem confident that the Labour Party would be able to form a government in the aftermath of the vote of no confidence.

LILY HAIL: First, I'd like to know your general thoughts on the government's collapse.
HK NORMAN: It's unfortunate that it had to come to this, but it's only right that the government faces the consequences for its incompetence over the last two months.
LILY HAIL: What paths do you see for Labour to form a government?
HK NORMAN: It's a very narrow path, for sure. It's unlikely that we'll be able to work with the Lib Dems but there is some room to work with if we do try and go down that road, but the clearest path ahead I think involves coming to an arrangement with the Democratic Reformists and the People's Movement.
LILY HAIL: What do you think is the most likely outcome at this point?
HK NORMAN: Tory minority.

It's an interesting angle from a member of the Labour Party. The common understanding in Westminster circles is, of course, that ARichTeaBiscuit backed the no-confidence motion because they saw a path to enter government. Norman, however, is convinced that backing the motion will be beneficial for Labour, whether or not they manage to enter government.

LILY HAIL: How will a minority Conservative government be more beneficial than a Conservative-Liberal Democrat one?
HK NORMAN: It won't, but given how the machinations of power work at Westminster it may be the most likely outcome. Aside from a snap election.
LILY HAIL: If it's not more beneficial, why back a no-confidence vote?
HK NORMAN: Because the aim has to be to form a government, and that's the aim we have. Even if we're unsuccessful in doing so, we have to show the people of the United Kingdom that we are ready to provide a strong alternative. Even if the machinations of power aren't in our favour.

Norman's vision of a "strong alternative" isn't one that had been shared with any current party members with the Independent before – they, too, seemed to think that entering government was the ultimate ends of the no-confidence motion. When pressed for specifics, their response was slightly vague.

LILY HAIL: How are Labour planning to demonstrate that they're a strong alternative?
HK NORMAN: By showcasing our alternative vision for Britain's future to the British people, whether that's in government, opposition, or on the campaign trail.

It's an interesting response, and it's unknown how ARichTeaBiscuit intends to proceed if they cannot form a government.

LILY HAIL: Is there anything else you'd like to share?
HK NORMAN: HK says trans rights.

Lily Hail is the editor-in-chief of the Independent.