What would the 2019 general election look like on the new electoral system?

Following the Great Resignation Event, the United Kingdom ditched the First-Past-The-Post electoral system it had used previously, where 650 MPs are elected in 650 single-member constituencies with the winner being the MP who comes first in the number of votes in the constituency. Now, 36 MPs are elected in 11 multi-member constituencies according to party-list proportional representation using the d’Hondt method. The Independent has calculated what the notional result of the 2019 general election would have been under this new system.

While proportional systems usually make it nearly impossible for a single party to win a majority, our calculations show that the new system would have handed the Conservatives a 2-seat majority in 2019. The Green Party, the Brexit Party, the Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru, and all Northern Irish parties apart from the DUP and Sinn Fein wouldn’t have won any seats.

London

Labour came first in London, and would win 3 seats while the Conservatives win the other 2. Future Lib Dem leader Ed Davey would have failed to win a seat.

East of England

The Conservatives dominated in the East of England, and would win 2 seats with Labour winning the other.

South East England

The Conservatives dominated in the South East of England, and would win 3 seats with Labour winning 1, and the Lib Dems winning their only seat in this region.

South West England

The Conservatives dominated in the South West of England, and would win 2 seats with Labour winning the other.

West Midlands

The Conservatives dominated in the West Midlands, and would win 2 seats with Labour winning the other.

East Midlands

The Conservatives dominated in the East Midlands, and would win 2 seats with Labour winning the other.

North West England

Labour came first in the North West, and would win 2 seats while the Conservatives would win the other 2. Speaker of the House of Commons Sir Lindsay Hoyle would lose his seat.

Yorkshire and North East England

The Conservatives came first in this region, and the Conservatives and Labour would win 2 seats each.

Scotland

The SNP and the Scottish Conservatives would win 1 seat each. Scottish Labour would be wiped out, and the Lib Dem leader in 2019 Jo Swinson would lose her seat in this system too.

Wales

Welsh Labour and the Welsh Conservatives would have won 1 seat each. Plaid Cymru would be wiped out.

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland’s seats would be split evenly between the unionist and nationalist communities, with the DUP and Sinn Fein winning 1 seat each. Other parties, including the SDLP, Alliance and UUP would fail to win a seat.