Watermelon Government lose vital test in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

The government headed into the Ikaroa-Rāwhiti by-election with high hopes. The Greens were polling with an unbeatable lead, with the Labour Party trailing in second. It seemed they would manage to win every electorate in the house, but things didn't end up that way.

What the government failed to do is unify behind a candidate. While the Official Opposition parties backed the Kiwi Party Leader, the government was separated on their by-election approach. This lead to a split between the two coalition parties and their failure to consolidate behind a candidate.

They also seemed to have a failed campaign, they government were polling over 60% combined entering the by-election, now they have less than half. Their vote has been cut from a surge by the National Party and the Kiwi Party. Something about the campaign must have not connected with the electorate, they'll be trying to work out what?

However in the opposition camp this result is a big success, the Liberals gamble of endorsing the Kiwi Party has worked. They however, still might have seen this a missed opportunity, and they may see it as only another government MP.

Whatever happens, expect Northland to be different from this by-election, the government, if they can get their act together, will do an endorsement deal. If not, they're certain to collapse. The right will mostly likely centre around a candidate again, with the exception of National, who will want another chance of getting in the spotlight, and the feminists, who shown supports of working with the liberals or greens since their formation.