Blurple slump as Phoenix & Solidarity make gains - constituency polls

Lancashire South - Likely Solidarity Hold

Lancashire South was a surprise pick-up for the People's Movement at the last election, with former Prime Minister DF44 managing to wrestle the seat from another former Prime Minister, DrCaesarMD. The seat is now held by Solidarity's zombie-rat, following the recent merge of the People's Movement into Solidarity.

With Solidarity polling at 36.5% to the Conservative's 33.41%, this seat could prove to be very contentious at the next election, but it does seem likely that Solidarity could well hold the seat, if Labour, the Lib Dems, and other left-of-centre parties decide to coalesce around the Solidarity candidate.

Derbyshire - Possible Labour Gain

Derbyshire is often one of the most hotly contested seats between Labour and the Conservatives, with Labour coming close to winning the seat in GEXIII and GEXIV, but falling just short of picking it up.

It does appear, however, that Labour could well have a chance of winning the seat held by Tory MP Melp8836 at the next election, polling at 38.87% to the Conservative's 36.65%. The Conservatives held the seat with 53.2% of the vote in August, in a head-to-head contest with the Labour Party. In a similar match-up, and if Labour can get the progressive vote to coalesce around them, Labour could take the seat.

South East London - Toss-up (Lab/Lib Dem)

The once long-held Labour seat of South East London was narrowly picked up by Lib Dem candidate realchaw with 33.4% of the vote, in a hotly contested three-way matchup with Labour, who finished on 32.9%, and the Conservatives, on 32.4%.

Three months on, and it seems the adversaries-turned-coalition partners could be in a dead heat for this corner of London, with Labour at 29.51%, narrowly edging ahead of the Lib Dems, on 28.23%. The Conservatives, meanwhile, experiencing something of a slump, falling back to 22.84%.

North & Mid Wales - Toss-up/Labour Marginal Gain

The last election saw the Conservatives narrowly hold North & Mid Wales with 25.2% of the vote, with Labour in second on 22.7%. The now-defunct Democratic Reformist Front came in fourth with 19% of the vote, and the direction those votes go at the next election could well decide who wins this seat.

If today's polling is anything to go by, Labour could emerge on top in what is a very competitive seat. Labour gains 1.7% on their election perfomance in this seat to win with 24.4% of the vote, whereas the Conservatives, on 17.25%, have slumped to third behind Solidarity, on 17.31%.

Whoever wins this seat at the next election could depend on where the pre-election alliances fall with regards to this seat, and it could very well be one to watch.

Gloucestershire & Wiltshire - Toss-up (LPUK/Lib Dem)

Another hotly contested seat that in August saw a three-way matchup between the Conservatives, the Libertarians, and the Lib Dems, with the Libertarians managing to narrowly win out against the Lib Dems with 29.9% and 29.5%, respectively, with the Conservatives not too far behind on 23.9%. The People's Movement came a distant fourth with 16.7%.

Three months on, the Libertarians have maintained their lead with 26.37% of the vote, but the Lib Dems are still very much in contention for the seat with 25.48%, putting the seat well in the region of a toss-up.

What could decide this seat come February could well come down to whether the Conservatives, who currently poll at 18% here, and Solidarity, polling at 14%, decide to contest this seat.

Highland & Grampian - Firm Lib Dem Hold

The United Kingdom's northernmost seat was the only constituency seat won by the old Social Democratic Party in the general election of August last year. Since then it passed from the SDP to the Conservatives, very briefly to the Loyalist League, before the Liberal Democrats picked it up in February, who held the seat in the last election. It is currently held by Lib Dem Deputy Leader and Secretary of State for Education, NorthernWomble.

Polling at 44.8%, the Liberal Democrats are predicted to hold on to this seat if an election were held today. While this doesn't account for party cross-endorsements, barring a concentrated effort by the opposition, it would be very unlikely for this seat to change hands anytime soon. The Conservatives, meanwhile, polled 32% in the seat at the last election, but have now slumped to 27%.

Summary

A week or so on from national polls that showed Labour and the Lib Dems poised to overtake the Conservatives and the Libertarians, these polls offer even more bad news to Blurple. Despite holding the country in a centre-right political hegemony on seats, it could well appear that the British people, tired of the apparent infighting between the Conservatives and the Libertarians that culminated in the collapse of Blurple, are beginning to drift towards the possibility of giving Labour and the Liberal Democrats another go.

The Phoenix Parties should not celebrate prematurely, however, as Solidarity is making significant gains on the constituency front, and could be a key player in the next parliament should Labour and the Lib Dems not have enough for a majority between them.

These results are likely to be somewhat encouraging to the likes of Greens, Coalition!, and the WNP, who may not win constituency seats but could see their support translate into list seats.