The Unpredictable Constituencies
Polling conducted before 12/1 January.
As we rapidly approach the final polling before the next General Election, we start to get a good idea of what seat is going to who. The Independent is here to analyse polling and see who is likely to win the seats this coming February.
West Yorkshire
West Yorkshire is currently in the hands of the Libertarians, reflected in their approx. 7% lead in this polling. A relatively safe seat for the Libertarians, as 7% gaps are difficult to make up, especially if we see a strong campaign from the Libertarians. Currently this seat is unlikely to flip and will remain in the hands of the LPUK for some time.
Raw Data
Conservatives - 22.93%
LPUK - 29.44%
Labour - 18.14%
LibDems - 7.80%
PPUK - 1.27%
Solidarity - 5.74%
Green - 4.78%
Coalition! - 7.24%
SATUP - 2.67%
Northamptonshire and Rutland
Northamptonshire and Rutland is held by the Conservatives, reflected in their 13% lead in this constituency. An unlikely gap to be made up, the Conservatives expected to hold the seat for another term.
Raw Data
Conservatives - 31.34%
LPUK - 16.65%
Labour - 18.78%
LibDems - 4.68%
PPUK - 1.70%
Solidarity - 9.51%
Green - 4.78%
Coalition! - 9.68%
SATUP - 3.28%
Nottinghamshire
Nottinghamshire is held by the Conservatives however Labour are leading in the constituency by 1%, ahead of the Tories. A 1% gap is usually negligible but we can expect to see a tight race here.
Raw Data
Conservatives - 25.47%
LPUK - 16.65%
Labour - 26.05%
LibDems - 8.53%
PPUK - 1.73%
Solidarity - 5.19%
Green - 5.50%
Coalition! - 6.47%
SATUP - 2.64%
Kent
Kent is another seat held by the Conservatives where they are not leading in the polling, LPUK holding a 2% lead on them. Another tight race, this seat could go to either parties following the General Election.
Raw Data
Conservatives - 26.25%
LPUK - 28.40%
Labour - 14.01%
LibDems - 8.45%
PPUK - 1.68%
Solidarity - 6.13%
Green - 6.42%
Coalition! - 7.01%
SATUP - 1.49%
Dorset
Dorset is a seat held by the Conservatives where at this stage we expect it to stay, holding a comfortable 4% lead over the LPUK. However if the LPUK hold a strong campaign we could see the seat flip into their hands.
Raw Data
Conservatives - 23.90%
LPUK - 19.88%
Labour - 16.06%
LibDems - 10.26%
PPUK - 0.97%
Solidarity - 13.69%
Green - 4.48%
Coalition! - 9.27%
SATUP - 1.49%
Cornwall and Devon
A tight race will be expected here. Held by the Liberal Democrats, who are polling 2nd here currently, trailing by a mere 1.3%. The seat is unlikely to flip in favour of 1st place, unless we see a strong campaign out of LPUK. This will certainly be a seat to watch in the General Election, as this is the seat the Libera Democrats are likely to want to keep.
Raw Data
Conservatives - 20.15%
LPUK - 23.39%
Labour - 8.70%
LibDems - 22.10%
PPUK - 1.48%
Solidarity - 12.38%
Green - 3.97%
Coalition! - 6.48%
SATUP - 1.34%