Right-wing Lib Dems on brink of walkout

"The group that was always to splinter was never the left", a shadow cabinet minister tells me after an article in the Independent reported that several left-leaning Lib Dems were thinking of splitting off into the Social Democratic Party. But this party member is quick to rebuke any notion that the party's right wing are in the driver's seat – as well as their party colleagues who would give off-the-record interviews that would advance that notion. "The reality is so, so different to what they presented", they say, referencing the article. "It is actually working to push the Lib Dem right out of the party."

It is a stunning dismissal of the notion that the centre-right camp of the party have become ascendant, as one might reasonably expect, after the Liberal Democrats' entry into official opposition after the last general election. Instead, this shadow cabinet member paints a picture of a party dominated by a largely inactive centre-left who work to veto a steady stream of legislation from those on the party's right. Tensions between the two camps, bubbling steadily over the past few months, now appear set to burst into the open.

Baa, baa, tax sheep

The Sheep and Wool (Innovation and Resilience) Bill was not meant to symbolise the conflict that is roiling the Liberal Democrats. Instead, what it was meant to do was introduce agricultural subsidies for British wool producers – potentially violating the World Trade Organisation's Agreement on Agriculture, which the UK signed up to in 1994.

The WTO agreement limits the amount and quality of state aid to agriculture that individual nations can provide. Aid that is intended to supplement producers' income in production-limiting schemes, where the government intends to reduce production of some good and provides aid to ease the transition, is generally permitted. So too are environmental programmes, research & development assistance, and regional development funds. But direct support for domestic production is likely to fall afoul of the agreement.

It is this contradiction that led their ideological allies to push back on the original proposal, says one right-leaning Lib Dem. The sheep and wool bill "was only controversial because the party left wing in its original form were in violation of the WTO Agricultural Agreement", they told the Independent, "so the right wing compromised accepting the general bill aims to reach a middle ground for general innovation and resilience, getting rid of the WTO violations". This, of course, did not satisfy everyone – though the Bill was eventually adopted as party policy.

"I'm not sure it is protectionism, this is providing for business not placing international policies on import or export", said one unhappy left-wing MP after the compromise was struck. Another agreed. "We were looking at farming subsidies and seeing how shit they were, and wanted to do something to change it."

A house divided

Several sources told the Independent that factional conflict within the shadow cabinet was nothing new.

"Pure numbers wise, the left hugely outweigh the right, and anything that goes to a vote – the left always win", said a shadow cabinet minister. "What caused their leak [about considering splitting off into the SDP] was more so that the left couldn't outdebate the right in cabinet and such, and would just give up instead of presenting their arguments and case properly." The shadow cabinet member takes a dim view of the party's left's contributions to their overall fortunes. "It's what happens when the [right-wing] minority are active as hell, and produce most of the party's legislation, while the left veto most things."

The party's ideological right wingers "deem a lot of [left wingers'] suggestions as being very authoritarian, radical, and not very liberal", the same person claimed. "It's like trying to balance libertarians and socialists in one party where the socialists are the majority, yet the libertarians are the debaters and legislators."

Defections imminent

Members of the party's right wing have taken serious umbridge with what they consider unwelcoming behaviour from their colleagues on the left.

"We’ve all certainly have been on the receiving end of the LD left being very hostile, confrontational, and generally unwelcoming to the right, despite always comprising and accepting left wing stuff with no complaints", says a party member. "The Lib Dem right wing, which have always been a minority in the party, were actually the ones feeling unwelcomed by the left wing membership and not at home."

Extraordinarily, it appears that Lib Dem leadership is holding the party together in an informal power-sharing agreement with the party's two loose ideological factions – an agreement that appears set to collapse at any minute.

"An informal deal of trust was made which kept [right-wing members from defecting] due to their confidence in Waffel to keep the party moderate and to the centre ground as leader. It was always an uneasy relationship entirely dependent on Waffel staying as leader."

Now, some Liberal Democrats are set to defect to the Conservative Party – and the Tories have reportedly been making arrangements. "The Conservatives are aware about [the impending defections] and hoping for [them] so they regain membership."

When asked if the defections are still on the cards, a right-wing Lib Dem said "it’s absolutely guaranteed, given how some individuals of the left have treated the right of the party, their ideas and regarding their attempted leak to undermine the right".

A spate of mass defections would be devastating to the Liberal Democrats' hope of forming the next government – particularly if, as claimed, the right wing make up the majority of the party's legislative output. With neither ideological faction satisfied with remaining in the Lib Dems, the next few days will put Waffel-lol's leadership to the test to see if she can keep her party mostly intact.