Independent candidates won most seats up for grabs in the by-elections held on the 2nd of October, with victories in the East of England, Redditch and Rugby. The government won the rest of the seats up for grabs, with Labour winning a North East and Yorkshire seat and Plaid Cymru winning in Wales. Notably, the established opposition parties which already had representation in parliament, namely the Conservatives (who currently form the Official Opposition, being the largest opposition party) and the Liberal Democrats (who led the polls before the general election in July and are the second largest opposition party in Parliament) failed to win any seat up for grabs. Reform, who entered Parliament for the first time this July, also failed to win any seats, though they did endorse one of the successful Independent candidates (although that candidate rejected Reform’s endorsement).

A Labour party spokesperson told the Independent that “the Labour Party is happy to see the government's majority expanded by four seats, including our very own model-willem. Whilst independent candidates have seen great results across the board, this shouldn't be very surprising: after all, it is incredibly rare for a government to take seats from the opposition in by-elections, let alone two seats in one night. It was, however, quite worrying to see that the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives refused to campaign in these by-elections, and I certainly hope they will perform better during the general election”.

The Conservatives, Lib Dems and Reform were all contacted for comment, but none replied with a statement on the by-election results before the publication of this article.

Independent candidate wins the Redditch by-election

Turnout: 39.62% (-47.18pp compared to the general election)

Independent GAIN from Liberal Democrat

In July, the Liberal Democrats topped the poll in the West Midlands region, with t2boys becoming the MP for Redditch. Following the election, the Liberal Democrats negotiated coalition deals both with a centre-left Labour-led coalition and with a centre-right Conservative-led coalition, but party members ended up rejecting both deals. This led to the party’s leader and deputy leader defecting to the Alliance Party and with Alliance joining a Labour-led coalition which successfully entered Downing Street. In their statement explaining their decision, then-party leader Phonexia2 criticised Tommy for calling the Tories “socialists”. In the aftermath of the fallout, Tommy chose to resign his seat even though Parliament had just been elected, triggering a by-election for his seat.

The Liberal Democrats nominated their new deputy leader Leafy_Emerald in the by-election, Labour nominated model-finn (who was second on their party list for the region in July), and the Conservatives nominated Hayekian-No7 (who was third on their party list for the North West England region in July). Independent candidate Yimir_ also stood in this by-election.

Unusually, Leafy did not attend any campaign events, nor did the local branch of their party. The same was true of Hayekian and the local Conservative party branch. Labour did, however, campaign. In July, their campaign accused the previous fourteen years of governance by the Conservatives of “breaking” the country, and that a Labour government is needed to “fix” Britain. In this by-election, with Labour back in Downing Street, Labour emphasised how they have “begun to clean up the mess [left behind the Conservatives]”, and that a vote for Labour in the by-election is a vote to approve of this.

Yimir led a very different campaign which was critical of all of the established parties, including the Conservatives who had recently been kicked from power, the new Labour-led government, and the Liberal Democrats who had won this seat in July. As an independent candidate who isn’t a member of any parties, she railed against the “corrupt” and “inept” big parties and emphasised how she would be an independent member of parliament rather than one who has to obey party whips, and ran on a campaign of further devolution (including by creating a devolved Parliament for England and by increasing the powers of county councils), of improved rural public transport, and of standing up for the UK’s “forgotten” rural traditions and its constitutional foundations.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Liberal Democrats failed to retain the seat, with the party coming dead last on a large swing against the party despite topping the poll in the region in July. Instead, Yimir was elected as the successor to Tommy and became the MP for Worcester by winning almost half of all votes cast in the race on the 4th largest swing to a candidate ever recorded in a by-election since WW2. Labour recorded a tiny swing towards them, and the Conservative vote also fell heavily.

Yimir reacted to her victory by claiming that it shows that “Labour has failed” and promised to oppose the government’s “tawdry” plans and to defend the UK’s constitution, rural traditions and national unity.

Independent candidate wins the Rugby by-election

Turnout: 35.38% (-51.42pp)

Independent GAIN from Conservative

In July, the Conservatives came second in the West Midlands region, with Sir-Iceman, who ran to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory leader in June, becoming the MP for Rugby. However, he voted in less than 40% of votes as an MP and so, under new rules penalising MPs for non-attendance in votes, parliamentary authorities expelled him from the Commons.

The Conservatives nominated Blocoff (who was 3rd on their party list in the South West England region in July) as their candidate in the race, while the Lib Dems nominated their new leader model-ceasar, Labour endorsed their Green Party coalition partners (who ran NGSpy, who was 4th on their party list in the South East England region in July), and the independent candidate AdSea260, who quit the Tories and the shadow cabinet over “ideological differences” with the party’s leader Blue-EG in August, also stood.

Just like in Redditch, the Lib Dems and Tories did not run a campaign. The Green Party campaigned on environmental issues, on a promise to tackle drug addiction through the health services rather than through policing, on a promise to build more houses and to insulate houses, and to improve Rugby’s public transport and its walking and cycling infrastructure. Similarly to Yimir, AdSea campaigned against political parties which, “for far too long… have been playing political games at the expense of working people” and said that only an independent MP like him could deliver for the West Midlands. In his campaign, he emphasised how he co-drafted legislation currently being debated by Parliament seeking to legalise the controversial practice of euthanasia, with his bill giving certain terminally ill people who have less than 6 months to live the right to end their lives early with the assistance of a doctor. He also promised to make the region “best place in the country for apprenticeships for young people”, to deliver investment in the region’s housing and infrastructure, and to bring jobs in farming, green energy and tech to the region.

Just like in Redditch, the incumbent MP’s party fell to last place, with the Lib Dems falling to second last. The Green Party, who did not contest this region in July and instead endorsed Labour, came second on almost the same vote share as Labour did in July; and independent candidate AdSea won here as well. Following his victory as the new MP for Rugby, he claimed that “a new era for independents in parliament has begun and it won't stop here” and promised to deliver on his promises and to hold the government to account.

Independent environmentalist candidate wins the East of England by-election

Turnout: 34.83% (-51.27pp)

Independent GAIN from Reform

The most high-profile victim of Parliament’s new strict non-attendance rule was Reform’s then leader WineRedPsy, who was expelled from his Clacton seat, triggering a by-election.

Reform selected the controversial party activist Model-Salad as their candidate, the Lib Dems selected rickcall123 (who was 2nd on their party list in the region in July and became the party’s acting leader after amazonas122’s defection to Alliance), Labour selected LGBT+ rights activist jamie_strudwick (who recently unsuccessfully ran to be the party’s deputy leader), and the “Independent Green” model-faelif, who quit the Green Party over its compromise on oil and gas, also ran in this race.

Just like in the West Midlands, the Lib Dems did not campaign here either. The Reform candidate claimed that their party’s leader was expelled from the Commons in an attempt by parliamentary authorities to “silence” the party, even though he was actually expelled for failing to vote in enough votes in Parliament. Salad also labelled the controversial climate protest organisation Just Stop Oil a “domestic terror organisation”, criticised net zero efforts, and promised a referendum on the UK’s net zero greenhouse gas emissions target, which currently requires the UK’s emissions to reach net zero by 2050. Salad also promised to crack down on illegal immigration, including by leaving the European Convention on Human Rights “if need be”, to keep the UK out of the EU, and to “legalise being proud to be English”. In regards to this latter promise, Salad made the unsubstantiated claim that people who “say [they’re] English” are being “arrested and thrown in jail” and promised that a Reform government would stop the “practice of two-tier policing seeing British patriots locked up like common thugs”. This is likely a reference to far-right rioters who took part in several days of violent disorder and rioting this summer, many of whom have subsequently been convicted and jailed, mainly of the public order offence of violent disorder.

Faelif, however, ran the polar opposite campaign to Salad. She quit the party in August due to it entering a government which promised to continue to issue licences for the extraction of oil and gas, albeit with the conditions that new licences cannot lead to the oil and gas industry growing and that the oil rig which is awarded the licence must “substantially” decrease its emissions. She campaigned on a platform of ending the issuing of oil and gas licences and fully ending the extraction of oil and gas and instead electrifying the UK. Her platform also included raising taxes on the “super-rich” and corporations, turning maintenance loans and tuition loans university students get into grants rather than loans, and increasing the level of the maintenance loan/grant, reintroducing animal species, and investing in farming, including through greater devolution to councils and through the government boosting food security.

Despite Faelif claiming that the Labour-led government wants to “[damage] our environment”, the Labour campaign said that the government is working to tackle climate change, pointing to the government having abolished the “ban” on onshore wind introduced under David Cameron in 2015 and to government plans to relax “restrictions” on renewable energy, to create a new state-owned “clean energy” company called Great British Energy, and to set new targets to reach net zero in 2040 rather than 2050 and for all electricity to be generated from “clean” sources by 2030. The Labour campaign also claimed that the government is delivering change, pointing to the passage of the government’s plan to increase the minimum wage and to government plans to renationalise the railways and reform Universal Credit. The Labour candidate also promised to deliver for young people, including by tackling knife crime through “tough” penalties and by tackling its causes, by promising to listen to them as an MP, by supporting young LGBT+ students in school, by making transport cheaper for young people, and by lowering the voting age to 16. Parliament recently passed plans to lower the voting age to 16.

Reform failed to hold on to their seat, with the independent candidate winning here as well and becoming the new MP for Peterborough. The Lib Dems fell heavily from first place to second last place, with the Tories (who stood down and endorsed Reform here in July) coming last. Reform and Labour saw their vote shares decline modestly.

Plaid Cymru wins the second Welsh seat

Turnout: 42.17% (-43.51pp)

Plaid Cymru GAIN from Conservative

In July, Plaid Cymru won the first Welsh seat and the Tories beat Labour to the second Welsh seat by less than 9 thousand votes, which was the narrowest result of the night. That Tory MP, however, was also expelled due to failing the new non-attendance rules, triggering a by-election in Wales.

The Tories nominated Kellogg-Briand (who was 3rd on their party list in the East Midlands region in July), Labour nominated realbassist (who unsuccessfully ran for MP here in July as a Lib Dem but defected to Labour in July), Plaid Cymru nominated their deputy leader ViktorHR, and the independent candidate Unlucky_Kale_5342 (who had joined the Tories around 3 months ago before joining Labour around 3 weeks ago and then defecting just a few days later to first the DUP and then becoming an independent) also stood. Kale applied to join Plaid Cymru after the byelection.

The Tory campaign here too was nonexistent. Labour campaigned on a theme of change and of standing up for the working class, with the campaign emphasising Labour’s minimum wage increase plan, their changes to Universal Credit and the scrapping of the 2-child benefit cap, and how Labour is backing legislation authored by Plaid Cymru to make St David’s Day a bank holiday. The campaign further promised to devolve broadcasting to Wales, reclassify HS2 as an England-only project rather than an England and Wales project, and to nationalise the Tata Steelworks in Port Talbot whose owners recently closed the last blast furnace at the steelworks with the threat of job losses. Bassist promised to oppose the closure of the blast furnaces while the Prime Minister said that the blast furnaces should be replaced with electric arc furnaces and vowed that the government would not allow job losses at Tata Steel or allow the closure of the site, instead wanting to modernise the steelworks and increase its steel production.

Plaid Cymru’s campaign focused more on securing increased devolution, on the Welsh language and Welsh culture, and on securing greater funding for the Welsh Government from Westminster. For example, their candidate promised the devolution of policing and justice powers to allow the Senedd to pass progressive laws on drugs, and also stated their support for massively increasing the powers of the Senedd such that all “policies which pertain to Wales” would be decided by the Senedd, arguing that historically the UK Government had mistreated Wales but the Senedd has improved governance of Wales. Plaid Cymru also called for replacing the current funding formula which decides how much funding the UK Government should give to the Welsh Government with one which bases funding levels on the “financial need” of the Welsh Government, with their candidate arguing that Wales “needs big developmental projects” and the Welsh Government doesn’t have the budget to fund them. Their candidate also called for the Development Bank of Wales to be converted into a “Development Agency” which would invest in the Welsh economy. And finally, on the Welsh language and Welsh culture, Plaid Cymru called for policies to promote the Welsh language, including by placing a temporary moratorium on the opening of English-only schools such that new schools instead teach students in Welsh, and for English-only and bilingual (English and Welsh) schools which wish to transition to be bilingual or Welsh-only schools to be granted financial assistance. Their platform also proposes a “Welsh Art Fund” which would give funding to artists who create art which relates to Wales or is in Welsh. The Plaid Cymru campaign also pointed to how they drafted legislation seeking to make St David’s Day a bank holiday in Wales.

The independent candidate Kale’s campaign, on the other hand, focused on local issues and on local government, with many issues mentioned by his campaign being ones which are the responsibility of councils and not Westminster. For example, he promised to fight to ensure that taxes set by local councils and by the Welsh Government would be low while also campaigning for councils to receive “fair” funding to enable them to “provide good services”, blaming high business rates (which are set by the Welsh Government) and the “underfunding” of councils (who are funded by the Welsh Government and by local taxes and not directly by Westminster) on Westminster. The campaign further mentioned improving local communities, such as by seeking to grow their economies by introducing free parking on weekends, abolishing business rates for small businesses, and opposing any proposed tourist taxes; by tackling anti-social behaviour; through increased investments in roads and pavements; and by improving health and wellbeing.

But in Wales, the independent campaign was not the winning campaign: instead, the Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru won the seat on a small positive swing, with the independent candidate second and Labour a close third on a tiny positive swing. The Conservative candidate came last with a fall in the Tory vote even though this seat was a Conservative defence. Plaid Cymru’s victory now means that, even though polls suggest only between 1 in 5 to 1 in 3 voters in Wales support independence, 100% of Welsh MPs support Welsh independence. Since Plaid Cymru is in the governing “Rainbow” Coalition, their victory also means that the government’s majority has expanded.

Viktor, who is now the MP for Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, told the Independent that “the result coming out of Wales on Friday sets a new record for Plaid Cymru's level of support, which I believe is 41% of the vote. I am honoured to have been chosen by my constituents, friends, and neighbours to represent them in Westminster, and I'm even happier that Plaid Cymru has managed to secure both seats reserved for MPs from Wales. I have been elected by people who feel that Westminster has let Wales down, that the once respectable relationship between Westminster and Cardiff has broken down as a result of 14 years of Conservative rule, and by those who believe Welsh interests are best served in Westminster by the Party of Wales. I ran my campaign on the same Plaid policies we ran on in the General Election, and which we are currently enforcing as part of the government coalition. This is why I look forward to working closely with my colleagues in Government to deliver as many promises as possible by the end of this term”.

Labour’s new deputy leader wins in North East and Yorkshire

Turnout: 36.90% (-69.92pp)

Labour GAIN from Conservative

In August, we reported how the then-MP for Richmond and Northallerton quit the Tories and the shadow cabinet. He later quit the Commons, triggering a by-election.

The Tories nominated StraitsofMagellan (who was 5th on their party list in the North West England region in July), Labour nominated their new deputy leader model-willem, and Reform nominated party activist mrsusandothechoosin.

The Tory campaign was nonexistent here too. The Labour campaign here emphasised Labour’s message that they are delivering, and will deliver, change. The campaign, in particular, highlighted Labour’s minimum wage increase plan, and included promises to invest in the NHS, improve public transport (including promises to nationalise the railways, modernise the railway network through electrification and upgrading the signalling system, and building the HS2 high-speed rail project between London, Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds), and build houses. The Labour candidate also praised the government for scrapping the Rwanda scheme and said the government should tackle immigration in a different way while ensuring that sectors with labour shortages can hire migrant workers.

The Reform campaign campaigned on a socially conservative anti-immigration and anti-multiculturalism theme which saw their candidate criticise the Scottish education system for not teaching students about Shakespeare plays. Their candidate also criticised young people because “They don't work nearly as hard as people used to. They're too busy on netflix or saying they don't have good mental health. And they're always on their phones”. Mr Susan also called for a return to mandatory national service and claimed “it may be a crime to say you are proud to be British” despite no such criminal offence existing and that he is “proud to be British”.

Just like in Wales, the government candidate won here too, with Labour’s deputy leader entering Parliament on a small positive swing and expanding the government’s majority. This allowed the Prime Minister to appoint Willem to cabinet, and he was subsequently appointed as the new Home and Justice Secretary. What is also significant about the result is that seemingly every voter which had backed the Tories in July switched to Reform: in July, the Tories were easily in first place, winning 6 in 10 voters. Now, they won only 1 in 10, with Reform winning 4 in 10 despite not running last time, having endorsed the Tories in July. The drop in the Tory vote is the second largest in any by-election since WW2, with only the 1948 Glasgow Camlachie by-election beating it when the Independent Labour Party’s vote share dropped by more than fifty percentage points.

Following his election as the MP for York Central, Willem promised to work on changing immigration rules and said the government should focus on delivering on its promises, including by improving living conditions, improving digital infrastructure, and improving railway infrastructure in Northern England.