Northern Ireland heads for snap election as Executive talks fail

Voters in Northern Ireland are bracing for a snap election to the Assembly after talks to restore the Northern Ireland Executive ended last night when the Ulster Unionist Party announced they would not be pursuing further negotiations.

Speaking to the press at eleven o'clock Monday, leader of the Ulster Unionist Party J_Ceasar, cited an article from CATO that included comments from the leaders of the Alliance Party, the Social Democratic and Labour Party, and the Irish Parliamentary Party; ka4bi, SoSaturnistic, and imadearedditaccount5 respectively.

Mr Ceasar cited a violation of a 'non-aggression pact', to not speak to the press about other parties negotiating in a negative light while the talks were ongoing. However, ka4bi disputed the claim shortly after, saying that the statements were made to CATO before the non-aggression pact was agreed to. This was affirmed in a statement by the editor of CATO.

Northern Ireland has been without an executive for the past week. Tensions remain high between the Ulster Unionists and the nationalist bloc of the Social Democratic and Labour Party and the Irish Parliamentary Party.

While an election could be averted if a new executive forms before 10 o'clock, this looks to be a near impossible scenario.

Analysis

By Lily Hail

The breakdown in talks will not be welcome news for many in Northern Ireland, least of all the voters who will be returning to ballot boxes for the second time. The question that most political observers will be asking is who the voters will blame for the collapse of the executive and the failure to restore it.

It was the Social Democratic and Labour Party, Irish Parliamentary Party, and the Alliance Party that collapsed the executive in the first place – making them easy targets for dissatified voters. However, the concerns that they have raised about the conduct of the UUP in the Executive appeared to resonate with some – particularly as the Ulster Unionists have found themselves unable to control the media narrative.

It will likely come as a gift to the nationalists that it was the UUP that walked away from talks, which will cement their position that the Ulster Unionists are refusing to engage in negotiations in good faith.

However, this certainly does not spell the end for the UUP. They will likely seek to refocus the blame for the collapse of the executive back onto the nationalist parties, and will also look to target Labour, who they accuse of working with leftist nationalist parties to block them from entering the Executive.

If there is one party that has escaped from this relatively unscathed so far, it is the Labour Party in Northern Ireland. The largest party in the Assembly, they have attempted to position themselves as mediators above the sectarian conflict. However, their relative uninvolvement may not work in their favour. Voters could see their inability to hold an executive together as evidence that First Minister Borednerdygamer is incapable of leading a government in a divided nation. The UUP will also look to paint them as standing idly by while their allies in the nationalist community attacked the unionists.

While the next set of polls will certainly be interesting, it's unlikely that this election will change much in the political landscape. No matter the final tally of seats in the next Assembly, the executive must have nationalists and unionists sharing power, and there doesn't seem to be much movement in that regard. The SDLP, LPNI, and UUP will almost certainly be returned as the largest members of each of their communities, and with relations still frosty between the unionists and nationalists, it remains to be seen whether an Executive will be able to be formed after this snap poll.

Lily Hail is the editor-in-chief of the Independent.