KyoPoll NowCast for the Next General Election

Using only the best polling data possible, the Independent in conjunction with KyoPolling has produced a seat forecast for the next General Election, and it's results if replicated would likely see a return of the Government.

With only a few weeks to go until campaigning starts, we will soon see the parties battle it out, as minor parties vie for further influence, Labour seeks to not fall too far from their highs, and the Tories and Lib Dems try and position themselves for a possible Government.

Firstly, we see Solidarity gaining one seat to give it 48, only a marginal increase on last time, and a decrease in the overall vote, which places them firmly as the largest party.

Then we see Labour dropping to only 40 seats, still a large number, but this is largely due to their constituencies remaining strong, and they should be capable of defending them, which will make up for the losses in overall vote which has decreased their list seats considerably. While the Party may improve in the Polls thanks to the Budget, this probably won't do much for the seat calculus, however it ensures that they remain the second largest party in the Commons, and Solidarity and Labour combined still command a considerable majority together.

Onto the Conservatives, while they make headways and increase their seat count, the KyoPoll calculator does not have the party making any constituency gains which deflates their overall seat count, and keeps them considerably below Labour despite their similar vote share. If the Conservatives are able to go hard in a lot of seats, and gain the endorsement of other parties or publications, they will likely see this number closer to where Labour's is projected to be.

The Social Liberals are seen here to be gaining 4 seats, largely thanks to a few constituencies they have been able to pick up in the calculator, however their projected vote share is much higher than what polls suggest, and the projection may be deceiving. If this is replicated, the Social Liberals will be able to grow their influence, but won't be in any balance of power.

The KyoPoll projection sees a dire outcome for the Liberal Democrats, which seems unlikely to actually occur. If this was replicated it would see little opportunity for any possible right wing Government, as the primary coalition partner would be decimated. Unless the Liberal Democrats are able to gain endorsements they will likely see themselves fall further into irrelevancy.

Unity is a wildcard, and the KyoPoll calculator was not quite sure how to handle them, which is reflected in this result here. With 7 seats it would be an amazing showing for the upstart party, and puts them on par with the Liberal Democrats. Combined with the high number of Lords the party has, they could theoretically have a large amount of influence, though this is once again prevented by the calculus pointing towards a comfortable Solidarity-Labour majority.

The Pirates also struggled in the calculation, though probably just because they were kneecapped by only running in a couple seats last time. There is little to analyse here beyond the fact that this number is deceiving, and we will likely see a much higher seat count.

So, how does this look for Government formation? The Magenta Government could probably continue on in a larger minority government, and there seems little hope for a centre right possibility. A Rose 2 would be a commanding Government, with a large majority, but whether either of them wants to give up what they have now remains to be seen.

As Parliament winds down, and YouGov polling imminent, we will see the final starting positions for these parties before they bolt down the track towards the finish line. A lot can change in 4 weeks, and it is entirely possible that we could see a Centre Right Government appear from behind.

So, some meta notes, this calculator is completely mine, and the numbers are pretty vibes based, intepreted from the last election and the most recent polling. At the last election the KyoPoll severely underestimated the Liberal Democrats, and Conservatives, overestimated the Social Liberals, but got the other numbers pretty right.  If you're upset with these numbers, don't be, you are free to put things into a spreadsheet and make up your own too.