Independent Constituency Polling: Libertarians surge past election performance

The Conservatives and Labour should be incredibly alarmed at the latest constituency polls which show the Libertarian Party UK - junior partner in three governing coalitions - set to take pole position for the first time in their history.

Once-safe Labour seats, such as those of former leaders WillShakespeare99's Clydeside and ARichTeaBiscuit's Merseyside, look set to fall to the Libertarians, while the Conservatives lose the top position to their junior coalition partners.

The polling data used for the analysis may be found here.

Clydeside

LPUK hold

It was a disappointing loss for Labour at the last election, and they will likely be disheartened as their prospects of winning it back at the next election look grim. Tarkin15 leads a potential Labour challenger by thirty-three percentage points, with all other parties being fairly insignificant, making this onetime Labour stronghold likely one of the safest LPUK seats in the country.

Tyne and Wear

LPUK hold

A good result for incumbent MP zhuk236 as polls show him eleven points up over the Conservatives, with Labour a distant third. An endorsement from the Tories would make him a certainty to win this seat as opposed to merely an overwhelming favourite.

Merseyside

LPUK gain from LAB

Probably the most concerning result of the night for Labour comes from Merseyside, where former leader and Shadow Foreign Secretary ARichTeaBiscuit is trailing the LPUK by fifteen points. Merseyside is one of just six constituencies Labour managed to win at the last election and the impending loss of what was as recently as two elections ago one of, if not the safest Labour seats in the country should be major cause for concern.

Norfolk and Suffolk

LPUK gain from CON

It's still a close race here in Norfolk and Suffolk, a traditional battleground that has flipped hands many times since the eighth general election. Conservative hjolfann is five points behind the LPUK, while Labour are behind the leaders by 13. Notable here is a strong showing for the Progressive Party on seven per cent.

North London

LAB hold

Former Scottish First Minister Weebru_m will be pleased to know that he is a narrow favourite to retain this seat, his closest competition being the Liberal Democrats. An endorsement from them will likely boost him over the line at GE15. The DRF are polling at just 0.79% here in their traditional stronghold of London, reflecting the fact that their time as a force in British politics has all but come to an end.

Cornwall and Devon

LD hold

A bit of good news for the Liberal Democrats on a night they could certainly use it: they look set to retain the seat of Cornwall and Devon if they can fight off a challenge from the Conservative Party. Disappointingly for the People's Movement, they retain higher polling here than they do nationally but their growth here has been stunted by designated contact 14derry's inability to contest it at the last election, something that will be sure to disappoint her.

Lily Hail is the editor-in-chief of the Independent.