General Election 17: Early Predictions

We are now one week away from the next General Election, and The Independent is here to provide predictions for each electorate, as well as the Senate. First up,

Pearce.

Pearce is held by incumbent Leader of the Oppositon and former Prime Minister NGSpy, SDP. However he is being contested by the current Senator for Western Australia, RMSteve, LNP. Since around November, it has been held by the incumbent and we expect it to stay this way for some time. SDP RETAIN.

Lingiari

Lingiari is held by cardboardgradient, LNP who is not recontesting this election. The main candidates at this election are lily-irl, SDP and walter.heisenberg2, LNP. We however, have seen the resignation of former Chief Justice, DirtySaiyan, IND with them returning to politics to contest this seat. Since January, we've seen this seat held by both the LNP and SDP, however we are expecting it to flip back to the SDP. SDP GAIN FROM LNP.

Mayo

Mayo is currently held by SnecBoi, CLP. This seat has had some history, with it being LNP from January to March, beflore flipping back to the SDP in April, where it was for some time before January. This seat, initially held by MattMonti at the previous General Election before they resigned around the middle of the term, where it was picked up my the now incumbent MP at the by-election. We expect it to stay with the incumbent. CLP RETAIN.

Capricornia

Capricornia is held by ARichTeaBiscuit from the SDP. They however, are being contested by Former Prime Minister riley8583 from the LNP. TheAudibleAsh was the incumbent for some time, before being unseated by ARichTeaBiscuit at the previous general election. Given riley8583 is a former Prime Minister, we expect them to take this seat. LNP GAIN FROM SDP.

Cowper

Cowper is a seat to watch this election. Incumbent Prime Minister AussieConservative, LNP is being challenged by current Speaker of the House, mikiboss, SDP. Recent polling shows AussieConservatice ahead, but not by a large margin. Cowper has been held by the LNP for some time, and we expect it to stay this way. LNP RETAIN.

Nicholls

Nicholls is held by showstealer1829, IND and has been for some time. He is being challenged by HorrorHQ from the LNP and new politician, EdenHopeStan, also an Independent. This seat hasn't seen a flip in some time, although we almost saw it in the January election, before a recount occured and it was shown to be a retain. We expect it to be this way at this election to. IND RETAIN.

Denison

Denison will be an interesting seat to see also. Dyljam, IND currently holds the seat, but is being contested by SuperPacman, LNP. This seat has seen various holders since January, however dyljam has held it for much of that time, and we see it staying this way at this election. IND RETAIN.

Moncrieff

Moncrieff is currently held by My13InchDuck, LNP. It is being contesting by incoming politician, TheGoatBoy2, SDP. TheGoatBoy has had a good start to their campaign, with Duck coming across a bit lacking. With minimal to go off of, we expect it to flip this election. SDP GAIN FROM LNP.

Canberra

Canberra will be tight. Incumbent MP BloodyChrome, LNP is being contested by Youmaton, SDP, former MP for Canberra. Youmaton held this seat for quite some time,  before BloodyChrome took it at the previous general election. We believe with a strong campaign from Youmaton, they will pick it up. SDP GAIN FROM LNP.

Sydney

Sydney is going to be close. Incumbent MP, riley8583, LNP is moving to Capricornia, with the LNP having Mrcri set to replace them as their candidate. This seat however, is being contested by General_Rommel, IND, with them making their return to politics. Other candidates are yet to be confirmed. We however, believe  that Rommel with his return to politics can pick up Sydney. IND GAIN FROM LNP.

Cunningham

Cunningham is held by former Senator, stranger195, LNP. This seat is being contested by politics newbie, Captain_Plat_2258, SAlt. It is unknown if other parties are set to run in Cunningham or not. We believe this seat to stay with its incumbent. LNP RETAIN.

Robertson

Robertson is in the hands of Winston_Wilhelmus, LNP currently. The SDP is not contesting the seat. Other candidates are unknown to The Independent. This seat has had various holders across time, however we don't expect it to change now. LNP RETAIN.

Hotham

Hotham is held by current Speaker of the House, mikiboss, SDP who is moving to Cowper in this election. The LNP are running Umatbru, and the SDP is bringing in Polteaghost as their candidate. This electorate is going to have interesting results, however we see SDP holding it. SDP RETAIN.

Brisbane

Brisbane is currently held by Zak6858, SDP. Zak is notorious for defecting parties, and if they recontest, we don't see them winning this seat. However, PineappleCrusher_, LNP has made his return to politics after a 6 month break. We believe with a good campaign, PineappleCrusher will win this. LNP GAIN FROM SDP.

Melbourne

Melbourne went to a byelection last term, with NeatSaucer, SDP winning it. The LNP are running UrqartTarkin in Melbourne, who contested the Melbourne by-election and lost it. NeatSaucer has shown good skills in Parliament, and we expect them to be shown for quite a bit longer. SDP RETAIN.

The final numbers for our predictions are as follows:

SDP: 6
LNP: 5
CLP: 1
IND: 3

As for the senate, we see:

SDP: 2
LNP: 1
CLP: 1