GEI Results: Murky Coalitioning Ahead, No Winner in Election
Britons woke up to inconclusive election results Friday morning. After a seismic shift in the electoral system of the nation, no clear path to forming government has been drawn.
Labour placed first, winning 11 seats; the Conservatives came close behind, winning 9; and the Liberal Democrats rounded out the major parties, winning 7. It’s likely that none of these parties can form government alone, with 19 seats considered a majority.
Thus, Britain’s novice political leaders will be forced to the negotiating table to gain power for the first time under the new electoral system. But negotiations may prove testing as there are no clear cut potential coalitions, and betrayal may be necessary to find a workable majority among these unworkable results.
The underperformance of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, relative to predictions, means that pundit speculation around a potential “Clegg” coalition has fallen flat. Now, Labour has the greatest mandate to form government as a result of its first-place finish. But it too faces a murky way forward as the left also falls short of a majority.
Labour’s Path Forward
Inadorable and Labour’s best shot at entering Number 10 is found in a “traffic light” coalition consisting of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and Greens. While the parties generally align on social issues, they have strongly contrasting visions for the economy.
The Liberal Democrat manifesto is mum on the issue of labor beyond commitments on paid leave. Meanwhile, the Labour and Greens manifestos offer wide-ranging promises to raise the minimum wage and repeal and reform trade union laws.
Further complicating matters are varying opinions on transportation and utilities. The Greens call for the nationalization of both rail companies and water companies, Labour call for rail nationalization, and the Liberal Democrats only wish to electrify the railways and restart HS2.
Beyond uncomfortable policy differences, a traffic light coalition would require political treachery on the part of the Liberal Democrats, who entered into an endorsement agreement with the Conservatives in the general election. Burning bridges with the Conservatives may come to haunt the Liberal Democrats should they choose to enter government with Labour and the Greens as that house of cards is primed to crumble under the slightest pressure.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats may opt to form a minority government, but this too is a risky decision. They would face an uphill battle passing a King’s Speech and internal opposition from the left wing of Labour and right wing of the Liberal Democrats displeased at policy compromises.
No Clegg, now what?
It’s been 9 years since the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have governed together. This election, contrary to what both parties wished, will prolong that time. The two endorsed each other in a handful of constituencies to reduce competition.
The endorsement deal netted the parties a measly 16 seats, three short of a majority and one less than a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition.
The road to a government with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats now runs through WineRedPsy’s Reform.
But the Liberal Democrats and Reform have irreconcilable philosophies when it comes to governing: the Liberal Democrats offer no systemic change, only minor tweaks to institutions they accept; while Reform seeks the upheaval of governance as we know it in Britain.
The Reform manifesto begins by proclaiming that “there’s a rot gripping British institutions.” It continues to read “Brexit was just the beginning. Britain is broken.” Comparatively, the Liberal Democrats are milquetoast, instead proposing policies that work within current systems instead of creating new ones.
Beyond this, the coalition as a whole would face a number of difficult policy compromises. A gradient of ideologies from the liberalism of the Liberal Democrats to the far right elements of Reform would threaten to tear apart a “broad-right” coalition from day one.
Caught in the middle would be the broad-tent of the Conservatives, whose identity would be greatly tested in such a coalition — forced to mediate between their allies while also managing their own internal dialogue on policy.
Most damning to this coalition, though, are the words of Liberal Democrat leader Amazonas122 to their members during their leadership bid showing skepticism towards working with Reform. The Liberal Democrat membership also vehemently rejected any electoral pact with Reform in the general election. Whether their attitude towards Reform inverts for their first taste of power in nearly a decade remains to be seen.
If it can get off the ground, a broad-right coalition could likely pass a King’s Speech, but the diametrically opposing ideologies of its members will haunt the coalition and bring about immediate challenges to its viability.
Liberal Democrats kingmakers, but not for long
The Liberal Democrats are a necessary coalition partner for both Labour and the Conservatives. Their membership holds the keys to Number 10, but will face a dispiriting time in government as they are forced to bow to the demands of their potential partners, left or right.
Traffic light or broad-right coalition, Britain’s next government will be predicated on agonizing policy compromises that may send the nation right back to the polls if, and when, a weak coalition fails.
The inconclusive nature of the election results will prove too great a hurdle for potential coalitions to overcome as they divide over fundamental differences.
This approaching, untenable coalition situation demonstrates that no party or person won Thursday’s election. Instead, the British people lost — left without the possibility of a stable government, curable only by another election.
Ernest O. Pinion is a political commentator for the Independent. His views do not necessarily represent those of the publication.