Final Predictions for 17th AustraliaSim General Election

By Olivia Jones

The campaign in Australia has been a long one, and as the campaign officially closes and the polls prepare to be opened the Independent is releasing final predictions for every electorate. These may differ from other prominent predictions, but they are based on an analysis by many of our political editors. Please enjoy.

Pearce - SDP hold

In this seat we have seen Minister of Defence RMSteve go up against the Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Social Democrats NGSpy, the incumbent for the seat. The LNP candidate has fought hard, but it seems like this seat will not be flipping tonight. We expect the seat may become slightly more marginal, but it is doubtful that it will flip.

Mayo - CLP hold

This seat will be having its second election in a short period of time, after the by-election triggered by the resignation of prominent SDP politician MattMonti. In the by-election we saw just how left this seat leans, with the CLP and SDP making up a massive share of the vote. This GE, the two parties have put aside their differences and the SDP has endorsed incumbent SnecBoi. We do not expect the LNP to make a dent in the left’s grip on this electorate, and as such SnecBoi will be returning to Parliament after the 4th.

Lingiari - LNP hold

Lingiari has seen a fight between the LNP’s Walter_heisenberg2 and an Independent named DirtySaiyan. Unfortunately a lack of the hardcore campaign needed to take this seat from Saiyan means we are expecting a firm LNP victory in Lingiari.

Capricornia - LNP lean

In this seat we have seen a faceoff between the former LNP Prime Minister and prominent Social Democrat ARichTeaBiscuit, along with what seems like a paper candidacy from CLP’s Lady_Aya. For a bit it seemed like an easy seat to call for the LNP, however a sudden massive surge in a recent poll has thrown that into doubt. We’re going to call this an LNP lean, but it really could go either way depending on how the two front-running candidates play their cards.

Moncrieff - LNP hold

In Moncrieff we have seen a fight between the LNP’s own My13InchDuck and TheGoatBoy2. Polls do not look good in Goat’s favour, and we think there is little to say other than this being a likely LNP safe hold.

Brisbane - LNP lean

Brisbane has seen a faceoff between the Social Democrat Flarelia and PineappleCrusher_ from the LibNats. This seat was held by the Australian Democrat MP Zak6858 previously, which means it really could either way. We think the LNP may be pulling ahead in this seat, however given the Social Democrats high national polling it really could go either way. Pending election results, however, we’re putting this down as an LNP lean.

Cowper - SDP lean

Another very close seat, a game of preferences is what will decide Cowper. Right now, pundits are predicting that an unlikely alliance of minor party candidates with the SDP will lead to the Prime Minister losing his seat. If the candidates can work together, this could turn the 4th of July into a night of nail biting and potential hair-tearing for the Government. This election, the Opposition will be counting on their candidate to keep up the pace and for the minor parties to keep the preferences flowing in. One thing is certain, though, the Prime Minister losing his electorate would certainly throw a spanner in the works for a Liberal National return to Government. This is a tossup, but we think it leans to the Social Democrats.

Robertson - ADP lean

Initially what looked like a win for the Liberal National Party has turned into a close election leaning to the AusDem candidate, Jayden. Endorsements from multiple parties and a strong campaign mean the Deputy Prime Minister may be in trouble, as the Australian Democrats have soaked up the left wing vote on top of their usual centrists. We’re expecting a flip in this seat, but it’s still fairly close so this is a seat to watch.

Sydney - Independent gain

This seat sees a faceoff between the LNP candidate Mccri, the Independent GeneralRommel, and the Socialist Alternative candidate atamanbatko. Rommel has received endorsements from virtually every single other party, and preferences from the Socialist Alternative, so we think it’s fairly safe to say that Rommel will take the seat; especially without the former Prime Minister there to keep the name recognition that was swinging the seat to the Liberals. Some polls have even had Rommel winning on first preferences.

Cunningham - Too close to call

Recent events have thrown the Cunningham campaign from a certain Lib-Nat hold into an almost uncallable toss-up. An endorsement of the Socialist candidate by the SDP, the AusDem candidate suddenly firing into action, and a relatively small amount of campaigning from the incumbent mean that it could go any way. The assumption is that the high-polling Liberal National MP will hold the seat, however these new factors long with the endorsement of the SAlt candidate by the SDP and CLP, and preferencing of the SAlt candidate by the AusDems, mean this really is too close to call.

Canberra - SDP lean

A seat that the SDP has been toiling over for a while now may just be in their grasp. Recent polls reveal that the popularity of Youmaton is growing steadily, with a focused and expansive campaign from the candidate. The LNP, however, is toiling behind. A last minute surge from the LNP would give them the seat, but without it my money is on Canberra flipping to the SocDems.

Nicholls - LNP lean

This seat initially saw a three horse race, but now that Showstealer (the Independent incumbent) has dropped out, it is now a two horse race between the colourful West Wimmera nationalist EdenHopeStan and the LNP candidate HorrorHQ. We’re saying this is an LNP lean, but we have no idea where the votes from Showstealer will go so this is a seat to watch.

Melbourne - SDP hold

The incumbent NeatSaucer won the seat via by-election last term, and the LNP’s UrqartTarkin is challenging them this election. Despite close polling, throughout the campaign, the SDP has put a lot into this seat and we don’t expect the primarily urban electorate to flip to the Liberals any time soon. We predict an SDP hold.

Hotham - LNP lean

This seat sees a three horse race between Umatbru of the LNP, Polteaghost of the SDP, and Deladi0 of the ADP. The LNP is in the lead by 5% in this vision, however this seems like a seat that could see a challenge. The ADP haven’t preferenced either party, which means if the SDP can pull into the lead in the first preferences then the seat could flip. However it would require a large surge, so we’re putting this down as an LNP lean.

Denison - Independent hold

Early into the campaign this seat seemed fairly marginal, though without a substantial campaign from the LNP in the later stages we think the incumbent Dyliam will comfortably hold onto his place in the House of Representatives and his electorate. Little short of a last minute surge could take this seat for the LNP.

Looks to be an interesting night for Australia, if the polls and predictions are to be believed. Based on these reports, the House of Representatives would look like this:

• LNP - 6
• SDP - 4
• IND - 2
• ADP - 1
• CLP - 1
• TOSSUP - 1

This would require the LNP to seek the approval of at least the Australian Democrats as well as one of the two Independents, if they do not win Cunningham.

This polling contains a lot of seats that could potentially flip either way. The best case scenario for the LNP here is a potential majority of the 15 seat house. The best case scenario for the SDP is flipping the extremely marginal Brisbane and Capricornia seats and getting themselves into a position of Government. The SDP's victory relies a lot on these marginal electorates, and whichever way Cunningham goes as they will need partners to secure an NGSpy premiership. Here are graphics of the best case scenario for each party:

LNP Best Case Scenario

SDP Best Case Scenario

One thing is certain, despite most predictions looking good for the LNP, their re-election is on incredibly thin ice and it would only take one upset victory to topple the Griffo administration. Ultimately predictions don't do justice to what can happen on election night, and the only thing we can do is wait for the results. This truly will be a close night and while the LNP may initially seem set for victory, the national polling and popularity of NGSpy may pull the SDP over the line and into Government.