A New Normal? Scotland looks right as welfare devolution becomes flashpoint

This is Duncs11's dream unfurling. Key Green legislation repealed, a strengthened alliance which anywhere else would have collapsed, and his parliamentary opposite expelled from parliament for missing a vote cycle. With the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Libertarians surging in the polls, the question that comes to being is if this will become the new political norm, or if this stands a peak before the cliff.

‌‌If you went into the street two years ago and asked which devolved parliament they consider to be a Conservative stronghold, the last option that would ever be raised would have been the then left dominated Holyrood. Scotland has long been favourable to left leaning parties, with the Scottish National Party, the Greens, and Scottish Labour all holding testimony to the ironclad hold over the nation such affiliated parties held since the introduction of devolution. Fast forward to the present day, and the Second Duncs11 Government is in a better position than ever. Having secured a majority alongside his ruling partner, the First Minister no longer had to deal with the two parties who had secured his original tenure, and the party he had sought to destroy was soon to be consumed by a non-nationalist party. Where all other branches of the Conservative party across the United Kingdom have collapsed in both governance and polling, the Scottish Conservatives have been the clear outsider to this trend with all current attempts to take them down falling short. When asked about why the First Minister believes his government defies this nationwide trend, he had this to say:

‌‌I am sad to see the Conservatives fall elsewhere, but I'm of course glad that the Scottish Conservatives and Unionists are holding strong. I'm sure this is down to our resolute mission to move forward from previous constitutional division and get on with the day job, while keeping our manifesto promises on matters such as the hated Car Tax or education reform.

‌‌On the opposite side of the spectrum, newly elected Deputy Leader of Scottish Labour and former First Minister IceCreamSandwich401, otherwise known as Sanic, had this to say to the issue of Scottish Labour's recent poll stagnation:

‌‌We've had a bit of a slow start, and it's not the administration (as far as I'm aware) that actually holds a majority, which becomes quite hard to oppose, but we're getting there and the Tory party in Scotland is beginning to sweat.

‌‌As the term continues to rage on within the walls of the Scottish Parliament, much lays question as to what steps the Duncs11 administration might take next in attempt to ensure their current high popularity maintains. When asks about what lies ahead, the First Minister responded:

‌‌Firstly, it's important we defend these policies - it's no good implementing them if next term a new Government comes into place and undoes them, that leaves us back to square one. However, and more importantly, we still have a lot more policies we want to see become law, with bills such as the Historical Sexual Offences (Pardon) Bill and Universities (Student Representation) Bill on the docket. I'm proud of what we've done, but we've got more to do.

‌‌Scottish Labour hold a immense task if they wish to take office at the next devolved election, however Sanic has this to comment regarding it, alongside his thoughts on the government's actions so far:

‌‌Well if we were to get into government next term we would have to repeal some disastrous polices the Tories are reintroducing, such as right to buy, however the work the government has been doing has some good bills such as the recent one which pardons people convicted for the crime of being homosexual, a horrendous stain on our past that must be corrected.

‌‌With the issue of welfare devolution arising once again, much to the dismay of the First Minister, the Scottish Government have pushed forward a call for the issue of referendums and 'similar public ballots' to be specifically reserved to Westminster within the devolution settlement. The introduction of the Scotland (Referenda) Bill was expected to reach some level of controversy, however at the time of writing the bill has only had comments of support from members of most political parties. Scottish Labour Leader Youmaton has been quiet on this motion thus far, however has been rumoured to be drafting an amendment to the legislation once it reaches the Lords. When asked about the legislation, and related matters, the First Minister commented:

‌‌In my view this isn't a change in the devolution settlement - it is simply clarifying the law on the current settlement. I do not believe that the Scottish Parliament has the power to call referenda on reserved matters anyway, but recent events mean that we need to clear that up and make it more legally certain. In the UK, we have a tradition of representative democracy, and it is existing precedent that minor amendments to the Scotland Act do not need such a referendum, especially as the Scottish Parliament has given its consent to this bill.

‌‌When asked upon a similar question, Sanic fired back:

‌‌Excuse the language, but its a load of anti-democratic shite introduced by a party that hates Scottish people having their own voice and deciding their own future.

‌‌With the result of the Scottish parliamentary motion on this matter due to conclude soon, and a majority of votes already reached, it is almost certain that this latest move by Duncs11 will turn out successful in his way. It is unlikely that the issue of Welfare Devolution will go away within any due time, however the First Minister had one last point to prove:

‌‌The Welfare Devolution Referendum was, in our view, held ultra vires and unconstitutionally - with this opinion being drawn on the basis of our legal advice and the ruling of the House of Lords Constitutional Committee in 2012 regarding devolved bodies holding referenda on reserved matters. Therefore, the referendum is entirely illegitimate and its results are not credible nor are they a legitimate basis for future legislative action.

‌‌The Scottish Parliament has been clear - we have passed a motion refusing a referendum (or the outright devolution) of welfare powers this term, because we want to end the constitutional divide and get on with our day job of implementing the Programme for Government. Any politician who tries to impose a referendum would be doing so against the clearly expressed view of the Scottish Parliament, and would be overriding our will.

‌‌In the future, I believe any proposal for the devolution of powers must be set out clearly - it must specify why exactly those powers need to be devolved, why the issues cannot be solved on a UK-wide basis, and how exactly they would be used. I've seen none of this on welfare devolution, and until such a credible proposal comes up, it is impossible to consider the merits of it.

‌‌Wrapping up on his thoughts, Sanic stated differently:

‌‌I am a long time supporter [of referenda] and always will be, I believe that the Scottish Parliament has evolved to the point where it deserves the responsibility and power to create and set its own welfare for our citizens, and as for the so called criticisms, out 61% of the Scottish population, 84% agreed with me. I think that's a large enough mandate to tell the government what they should do.

‌‌The future depends upon the determination and the balance that so many politicians attempt to unfurl, as constitutional mindsets duel in understanding and wit in order to advance their thoughts on a better Scotland and a better United Kingdom. Only time will truly tell as to what shall occur towards the later half of the term, and if the Scottish Labour party will be able to close the increasing gap between them and the Scottish Conservatives. With the sun beginning to set on this iteration of the welfare devolution story, one can only imagine that this issue will only be settled once Scotland heads back to the polls for another election.

‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌Yala Talama is a political correspondent with the Independent.