The 3 main parties are in a dead heat: the Independent's prediction of #GEI
According to the Independent’s analysis of the election campaign, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Labour are projected to be effectively tied on seat numbers in the first general election since the Mass Resignation Event.
Prediction
| Party | Seats won | Seat change |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11 | -8 |
| Liberal Democrat | 10 | +9 |
| Labour | 10 | -3 |
| Reform | 2 | +2 |
| Green | 1 | +1 |
| Democratic Unionist | 1 | no change |
| Social Democratic and Labour | 1 | no change |
| Alliance | 0 | no change |
| Plaid Cymru | 0 | no change |
| Alba | 0 | no change |
Possible coalitions
No party is predicted to win a majority, leading to a hung parliament and the necessity of a minority government held up by confidence and supply or a coalition agreement. According to our prediction, the Liberal Democrats are set to be the kingmakers and will have to decide whether the right-wing parties or the left-wing parties enter government, as neither the left or right blocs are predicted to win enough seats to form a majority coalition government, unless Labour and the Conservatives agree to an unorthodox grand coalition. Possibilities include a "Broad Right" coalition of the Liberal Democrats, Conservatives, Reform and DUP or a "Clegg" coalition of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, with the Liberal Democrats and the right-wing parties having negotiated endorsement deals as previously reported by the Independent.
| Coalition | Seats | Majority? |
|---|---|---|
| Clegg | 21 | 6 seat majority |
| Broad Right | 24 | 12 seat majority |
| Lab-Lib | 20 | 4 seat majority |
| Left | 12 | 7 seats short of a majority |
| Broad Left | 22 | 8 seat majority |
| Grand Coalition | 21 | 6 seat majority |
| Right | 14 | 5 seats short of a majority |
Regional breakdown of results
London
In London, the Liberal Democrats overtake Labour as the prominent party, while the Greens narrowly fail to win a seat.
| Party | Vote share | Change in vote share | Seats won | Seat change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Democrat | 50.35% | 35.41% | 3 | +3 |
| Labour | 32.65% | -15.48% | 2 | -1 |
| Green | 17.00% | 13.93% | 0 | no change |
South East England
In the previously Conservative South East, the Liberal Democrats come first with the Conservatives deciding to not run a candidate. The Greens win their only seat here, and Reform comes second.
| Party | Vote share | Change in vote share | Seats won | Seat change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Democrat | 33.06% | 14.83% | 2 | +1 |
| Reform | 28.01% | 27.73% | 1 | +1 |
| Labour | 21.77% | -0.37% | 1 | no change |
| Green | 17.16% | 13.21% | 1 | +1 |
South West England
The Conservatives come first in the South West again, but lose a seat to the Liberal Democrats.
| Party | Vote share | Change in vote share | Seats won | Seat change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 38.00% | -14.80% | 1 | -1 |
| Liberal Democrat | 35.29% | 17.13% | 1 | +1 |
| Labour | 26.71% | 3.35% | 1 | no change |
East of England
The Liberal Democrats come first in this previously Conservative region, with the Conservatives deciding to not field a candidate here. Reform gains their second seat in this region.
| Party | Vote share | Change in vote share | Seats won | Seat change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Democrat | 38.37% | 24.98% | 1 | +1 |
| Labour | 32.02% | 7.58% | 1 | no change |
| Reform | 29.61% | 29.23% | 1 | +1 |
West Midlands
The Conservatives remain ahead in this region but lose a seat to the Liberal Democrats.
| Party | Vote share | Change in vote share | Seats won | Seat change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 38.51% | -14.93% | 1 | -1 |
| Liberal Democrat | 32.16% | 24.27% | 1 | +1 |
| Labour | 29.33% | -4.52% | 1 | no change |
East Midlands
The Conservatives remain dominant in this region.
| Party | Vote share | Change in vote share | Seats won | Seat change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 68.06% | 13.29% | 2 | no change |
| Labour | 31.94% | 0.25% | 1 | no change |
North West England
In this traditionally Labour-leaning region, the Conservatives become the dominant party, wining 1 seat off Labour.
| Party | Vote share | Change in vote share | Seats won | Seat change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 62.77% | 25.28% | 3 | +1 |
| Labour | 37.23% | -10.02% | 1 | -1 |
North East England, Yorkshire and the Humber
This region is traditionally Labour-leaning, but thanks to the Conservative gains in the Red Wall, the Conservatives came first in vote share in 2019 here. This time, they are predicted to become the dominant party and gain 1 seat from Labour.
| Party | Vote share | Change in vote share | Seats won | Seat change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 65.07% | 23.55% | 3 | +1 |
| Labour | 34.93% | -5.17% | 1 | -1 |
Scotland
The SNP failed to run in this election, so the task of representing the nationalist community fell to Alba this election. Due to a dominant predicted Liberal Democrat vote and due to the anti-Liberal Democrat vote being split between Labour and Alba, the unionist Liberal Democrats are predicted to win both Scottish seats.
| Party | Vote share | Change in vote share | Seats won | Seat change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Democrat | 61.91% | 52.36% | 2 | +2 |
| Labour | 27.92% | 9.37% | 0 | no change |
| Alba | 10.16% | New | 0 | no change |
Wales
In Wales, no change is predicted from 2019, but the Conservatives are predicted to overtake Labour in vote share while the Liberal Democrats very narrowly fail to win a seat. Plaid Cymru is predicted to fail to win a seat in this competitive 4-way marginal region with just 2 seats.
| Party | Vote share | Change in vote share | Seats won | Seat change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 34.20% | -1.88% | 1 | no change |
| Labour | 26.78% | -14.15% | 1 | no change |
| Liberal Democrat | 26.62% | 20.65% | 0 | no change |
| Plaid Cymru | 12.40% | 2.48% | 0 | no change |
Northern Ireland
In Northern Ireland, the unionist DUP is predicted to stay in first place, whereas the nationalist SDLP gains a seat from Sinn Fein, which recently de-registered as a party. The cross-community Alliance narrowly fails to win a seat.
| Party | Vote share | Change in vote share | Seats won | Seat change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Unionist | 38.05% | 7.50% | 1 | no change |
| Social Democratic and Labour | 32.18% | 17.32% | 1 | +1 |
| Alliance | 29.77% | 12.99% | 0 | no change |
Methodology
The Independent calculated the polling numbers of each party in each region based on the pre-election polling average, where parties stood candidates and how many, and the endorsement deals. The Independent then analysed the campaign events of parties and candidates, the leaders' debate, regional hustings and manifestos to estimate how the campaign changed the numbers of each party in region.
The model used is unlikely to be 100% accurate as it has not been possible to fine tune it, and due to certain assumptions made in the creation of the model which may turn out to be incorrect. For example, I expect that my model may be underestimating regional/devo parties and smaller parties. However, I expect that the prediction of a dead heat between the 3 main parties and the Liberal Democrats being kingmakers is likely to be right.
Lighting Goodall is the Independent's Political Data Journalist.